I was reminded today again of the need for the best forecasting possible when doing many kinds of analytics. I have covered the concept of Superforecasting here a number of times. Basically the idea that there are people out there who have a style of prediction that is significantly better than others, and can be used to provide this value.
See the book “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction,” by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner on this, and my tag below. Also their frequently updated Good Judgement blog, which contains updated news and challenges. They are even looking for volunteer forecasters there to compete.
A must read. I will be following more closely and reporting on items from their blog now. I taught forecasting, and this rings very true in value, beyond the usual analytic methods, or even Machine Learning or Big Data,
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